AGP Executive Report

India Economy: India’s FY2025-26 GDP growth is estimated at 7.7%, with Q4 rising 7.8% as services expand 9.9% and manufacturing and other sectors post strong gains. Monetary Policy: The RBI kept rates unchanged at 5.25% and moved to attract dollars to support the rupee, including changes for foreign bond investors and hedging costs. Japan Fiscal Response: Japan’s parliament passed a 3.11-trillion-yen supplementary budget to cushion higher energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict. India-Russia Diplomacy: Vladimir Putin praised “trust-based, brotherly” India-Russia ties at SPIEF, highlighting technology cooperation. India Politics & Borders: Modi attacked Congress as voters reject “politics of instability,” while India protested Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan polls; Pakistan rejected India’s remarks. Energy & Industry: Maruti launched India’s first flex-fuel Wagon R (E20-E100) to cut oil imports; AirTrunk plans Rs 3 lakh crore and 5 GW of data-centre capacity by 2030. Trade & Business: TVS Supply Chain Solutions and Italy’s ALA Group formed an aerospace/defence supply-chain JV in India; ixigo bought a majority stake in Brevistay to expand hotel inventory. Environment & Health: India reported a suspected Ebola case in Rajasthan pending lab confirmation; seafood exports are targeted to jump to $30bn in five years.

Pacific Clean Energy Push: ISA and the World Bank launched a Pacific SIDS solar dialogue in Bali, unveiling an investment-ready 220 MW solar-plus-storage tender for Mauritius and aiming to cut fossil-fuel import dependence across island states. Philippines Monetary Policy: Softer May inflation didn’t calm BSP expectations—private economists still see a 25-bp rate hike on June 18, with core inflation staying above target. India Economy: India’s FY2025-26 growth held strong at 7.7% and Q4 rose 7.8%, as Sitharaman reiterated the “Reform Express” push to sustain momentum. India Weather & Safety: IMD warned of heavy rain, thunderstorms and lightning in Assam’s Guwahati over the next 2-3 days, urging vigilance for waterlogging and landslides. China-Asia Diplomacy: China and Laos pledged deeper legislative exchanges as Beijing seeks to deepen ties with regional partners. China-Europe Business: EU Chamber officials say China-Europe business conditions are becoming more “symmetrical,” potentially easing dialogue on market access. Public Wi-Fi Debate (India): TRAI’s consultation sparked a fight over whether public Wi-Fi still deserves support as mobile broadband becomes ubiquitous. Security in India: An NIA court framed charges against PFI leaders under UAPA and conspiracy-related offences. Tech & AI (US-Japan): The US and Japan agreed to invest $1 billion in AI science projects under a five-year Genesis Mission plan.

Monsoon Watch: India’s southwest monsoon has reached Kerala after a delay, but attention now turns to when rains will push into North India as El Niño threatens to weaken the season. El Niño Alarm: The UN and WMO warn of a high chance of El Niño returning, with Asia facing harsher heat, drought risks, and pressure on farms, power and water. Japan Economy: Japan’s real wages rose for a fourth straight month in April, the longest positive streak since 2021, even as households’ spending edged down. Japan Energy: Japan plans to rebuild ageing nuclear reactors—two to five by the 2040s and more by the 2050s—to meet rising demand, including from AI data centres. China-NK Diplomacy: Xi Jinping is set to visit North Korea, underscoring deepening China-NK ties amid regional security concerns. India-UK Dealmaking: UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper’s India visit produced agreements on AI, critical minerals, defence, education and clean energy, including a Liverpool campus in Bengaluru. India-Venezuela Energy: India will send a technical team to Venezuela to explore new energy opportunities as bilateral oil cooperation expands. US-India Trade: Trump says a US-India trade agreement is close, calling Modi a “good friend” while reiterating tariff complaints. China Trade Tensions: China’s business lobby rejects proposed US forced-labour tariffs, urging dialogue to protect global supply chains. Regional Growth Outlook: EBRD forecasts Mongolia and Central Asia growth at 5.6% in 2026, with energy and sanctions risks ahead. Tech & Skills: Malaysia kicks off TVET Day 2026, spotlighting skills training as a competitiveness driver.

China-Africa Trade: China’s zero-tariff rollout for all 53 African countries with diplomatic ties is set to cut costs and boost exports, with South Africa among the biggest beneficiaries. US Trade: USTR Jamieson Greer says the US will respect tariff caps in deals with the EU and Japan, even as new forced-labour tariffs loom. India Energy & Industry: Maruti Suzuki launched India’s first flex-fuel Wagon R (E20–E100), betting on ethanol to cut crude imports and emissions; India also plans to expand flex-fuel fuel stations. India Markets: Reuters reports foreign firms are increasingly using India IPOs mainly to cash out via offer-for-sale, not to raise new growth capital. Japan Storm Disruption: Severe Tropical Storm Jangmi battered Japan, disrupting transport, cutting power for tens of thousands, and triggering evacuations. Security & Espionage: Five Eyes partners warn Chinese spies are using job sites like LinkedIn to lure Western workers into sharing sensitive information. Regional Diplomacy: Nepal’s foreign minister will visit India June 5–7 amid border-dispute tensions. Crime Case: Malaysia charged a businessman linked to the ‘Geng TR’ organised crime group, with the case set for transfer to the Klang High Court.

Currency Watch: China’s yuan weakened to 6.8203 per USD, with the central parity rate set by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. Aviation & Diplomacy: South Korea and China agreed to expand weekly flight rights for the first time in seven years, adding routes and boosting passenger and cargo capacity. Security & Espionage: Australia and Five Eyes partners warned that Chinese spies are using LinkedIn and job platforms to target defence and foreign-policy-linked staff for non-public information. Regional Politics: New Zealand said it will raise concerns with Beijing after China banned four NZ lawmakers over a Taiwan visit. Energy & Markets: Oil jumped after Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain, while India’s growth outlook faces pressure from elevated oil prices. Japan Domestic: Yamada Holdings and Edion plan to merge to form a larger electronics retailer, as Japan’s shrinking population squeezes margins. Science & Health: Chinese researchers reported high-protein maize genes to cut feed protein shortages, and a study found traces of an ancient anesthetic compound on 600-year-old Chinese surgical tools. Business & Tech: SpaceX set its IPO price at USD 135 a share, valuing it at USD 1.77 trillion. Public Safety: A major ICU fire in Bihar’s Muzaffarpur killed three people.

Taiwan Strait Diplomacy: Taiwan urged Japan and the Philippines to consult it over planned maritime boundary talks, saying the area overlaps with Taiwan’s EEZ and rights. Middle East Fallout: India condemned the Kuwait airport attack that killed an Indian national and injured dozens, reiterating calls to stop targeting civilians. India Economy & Policy: RBI deputy governor said India’s growth is resilient despite geopolitics and supply shocks, with inflation within tolerance; RBI also denied reports it sold gold reserves, keeping holdings at 880.52 tonnes. Global Growth Watch: OECD cut its global growth outlook, citing the U.S.-Iran war’s energy and shipping disruptions. Energy Transition: Malaysia’s ETCon26 opened with momentum on energy transition, while Gas Malaysia deployed Asia Pacific’s first LOOP system to turn methane into graphene and hydrogen-rich gas. Trade & Connectivity: India-Oman CEPA came into force; Malaysia-Indonesia JCBC in Jakarta will focus on supply-chain resilience. Climate & Industry: Scientists warned deep-sea mining could cause long-lasting, hard-to-reverse damage in the Pacific. EV Momentum: IEA data showed EVs hit 25% of global new car sales in 2025, led by China.

US-China Trade Talks: The U.S. Trade Representative opened public comments on the “U.S.-China Board of Trade,” aiming to identify “non-sensitive” goods for possible tariff cuts, with submissions due July 10. China Tech & Capital Controls: China expanded outbound investment rules to explicitly cover individual investors, raising compliance risks for tech founders and everyday investors. Asia Billionaires: ByteDance co-founder Zhang Yiming surged to become China’s richest person, overtaking Mukesh Ambani for Asia’s No. 2 spot. Japan Security & Costs: Japan approved a 3.1 trillion yen extra budget to cushion Middle East-linked inflation, while also moving ahead with intelligence and security legislation that critics warn could mean “remilitarization.” Japan Storm Disruption: Typhoon Jangmi/Jangmi struck Japan, cutting power to about 60,000 homes and cancelling hundreds of flights. India-Myanmar Trade: India and Myanmar agreed to boost trade via the Rupee-Kyat settlement mechanism and deepen cooperation in agro-processing, energy and mining. India-Oman CEPA: India-Oman CEPA took effect June 1, framed as a stabilizing trade corridor amid West Asia turmoil. Solomons-China Pivot: Solomon Islands PM Matthew Wale said he will review the 2022 security pact with China, risking backlash as Australia seeks a reset. Regional Security: The Shangri-La Dialogue wrapped in Singapore, underscoring intensifying Asia-Pacific strategic competition.

Japan-Iran Shipping Talks: Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi urged “free and safe” passage through the Strait of Hormuz in calls with Iran’s president, seeking smoother transit and access to essentials amid wider Middle East uncertainty. Philippines-China Tensions: The Philippines flagged an unusually heavy Chinese naval and coast guard presence near Bajo de Masinloc in the West Philippine Sea, tied to a possible fixed installation. India-Nepal Border Row: India reiterated there’s “no role for any third party” after Nepal PM Balendra Shah said both sides have encroached territory, pointing to unresolved segments linked to river shifts. India-Cambodia Payments: UPI users can now pay at 4.5 million Cambodia merchant outlets via KHQR, with reciprocal access for Cambodians planned. Sports Media Deal: FIFA struck a last-minute broadcast deal with Zee for World Cup coverage in India through 2034. Economy & Markets: India’s industrial production rose 4.9% in April as manufacturing led, while the stock market’s drop in global ranking was linked to foreign outflows and AI-driven rallies elsewhere. China Policy: China tightened outbound investment rules and signaled a more protective stance toward tech and firms abroad. Regional Business: Uzbekistan set a 145 trillion soum target for its creative economy, backing parks, tax incentives, and handicrafts.

Green Transition Push: China is accelerating its low-carbon shift with new green-energy projects and tighter emissions targets under the 15th Five-Year Plan. Pacific Media Resilience: Pacific broadcasters are under pressure from falling revenue and rising costs, with calls for stronger business models, skills and regional cooperation. Fisheries Protection Careers: A young Samoan fisheries officer is spotlighted for her role in Operation Tui Moana 2026, showing how local talent helps safeguard Pacific stocks. Indo-Pacific Security Talks: The Shangri-La Dialogue ended with renewed focus on rules-based order and ASEAN centrality, while Japan’s defense posture drew scrutiny. Middle East Shipping Shock: War-risk premiums for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz have surged, forcing insurers to reprice exposure voyage-by-voyage. India Market Strain: Indian stocks face pressure from foreign outflows and Middle East-driven oil volatility, with the rupee seen as vulnerable. Tech and Finance in Asia: MUFG is setting up a $250m India startup fund, while Mynt expands GCash partnerships in Japan to deepen financial inclusion. Trade and Ports: COSCO’s JV with Spain’s PTP was approved to redevelop Tarragona port, highlighting China’s growing maritime footprint. Food Supply Worry: Japan faces a banana shortage risk as ethylene supplies tighten amid Middle East-linked energy disruptions. Youth Politics in India: The “Cockroach Party” founder plans street protests demanding the education minister’s resignation over exam leaks and grading errors.

South China Sea Diplomacy: The Philippines and Vietnam reaffirmed support for the 2016 arbitral ruling, backing UNCLOS and urging self-restraint after a Manila visit by Vietnam’s leader. Regional Tourism Pressure: Southeast Asia’s tourism summer season faces strain as Iran-war energy costs and flight uncertainty push up fares and trigger cancellations, hitting travel-dependent economies. Cybersecurity Fallout: The US, EU, NATO, UK, Australia and Japan blamed China-linked hackers for attacks on Microsoft Exchange servers, warning of major spillover damage to governments and businesses. India–US Trade Talks: India says its first bilateral trade agreement with the US is close, with legal text and remaining details for the interim pact the main items left. India–Australia Defence Push: India and Australia agreed to expand defence cooperation, including maritime surveillance and search-and-rescue drills, plus steps toward air-to-air refuelling exercises. India–Myanmar Security: India and Myanmar discussed cross-border cyber scam networks, with India citing thousands repatriated and calling for wider regional action. Pakistan–China Market Boost: Pakistan’s stock market rose on expectations of steadier macro conditions and continued support for CPEC projects. Business & Tech: Otoki plans a Japan sales subsidiary to ride K-food demand; China’s Unitree Robotics cleared IPO review for STAR Market listing. Health Watch: India’s NFHS-6 shows rising obesity and high blood sugar among adults.

Indo-Pacific Security: Australia keeps AUKUS moving while pushing diplomacy in Singapore to manage US-China tensions, with alliance and trade ties both in focus. PNG-China Business: Papua New Guinea is lining up a major China business forum in October, aiming to make China its top economic priority and fast-track projects like a new canning plant. India Politics: DK Shivakumar is set to be sworn in as Karnataka CM on June 3, with declared assets making him India’s richest CM. Public Health: India’s waistline is expanding fast, with NFHS-6 showing overweight/obesity rising sharply since 2019, especially among women and in cities. Tax Compliance: The Philippines’ BIR reminds e-marketplaces and digital payment firms to submit withholding “alphalists” with returns. CEPA Minerals: Chile is pitching critical minerals—copper, lithium and cobalt—to India as CEPA talks near a deal. Japan Budget: Japan plans a supplementary budget near $20b to cushion Iran-war-driven energy costs. Markets & FX: India’s rupee and bonds are set to react to the RBI decision as the Iran conflict keeps energy prices elevated. China-Taiwan Maritime: China’s coast guard patrols near Taiwan amid Japan-Philippines maritime talks. Nepal-India Row: Rabi Lamichhane begins a five-day India visit as border disputes stay politically charged. Tourism Hit: Iran-war fuel costs are squeezing Southeast Asia’s tourism economies, threatening summer travel. Tech Jobs: India’s tech hiring cools as AI shifts firms toward leaner, outcome-based delivery.

China Health Push: Shenzhen is rolling out community-based smoking cessation with digital tracking and follow-ups, aiming to make quitting easier and more local. India Science & Innovation: Jitendra Singh says India has shifted from technology adopter to global innovation leader, citing momentum in space, AI, biotech and clean energy. China Economy Watch: China’s factory activity in May softened, with PMI slipping and policymakers cutting rates to support growth. Philippines-US Drills: The AFP and US Indo-Pacific Command wrapped a five-day maritime exercise near Scarborough Shoal, while China claimed patrols—Manila called the drills unfounded. China Trade Secrets Rules: New Chinese rules on protecting trade secrets take effect, explicitly covering data and algorithms. India-Oman Trade: CEPA origin rules are notified ahead of June 1 implementation, setting up duty-free access for Indian exports. Regional Diplomacy: Nepal says it has sent diplomatic notes to India and China on the Lipulekh dispute and is also involving the UK. Business & Governance: India urges states to speed legal metrology reforms, moving firms toward registration to cut compliance load. Aviation/Travel: MyFlyYatra expands US-to-India flight coverage from Washington DC, Detroit and Los Angeles.

US-Iran Tensions: NBC reports a US F-15E shot down over southwestern Iran in April may have been hit by a Chinese-made MANPADS, with officials also probing possible Chinese radar support—raising fresh questions about Beijing’s role in Tehran’s wartime toolkit. China-EV Waste Rules: China is tightening rules on electric vehicle battery recycling, targeting illegal disposal and low-quality dismantling as retired batteries are forecast to exceed 1 million tons annually by 2030. Ebola Vaccine Breakthrough: Chinese scientists say they’ve developed a broad-spectrum mRNA Ebola vaccine aimed at long-lasting protection across multiple strains beyond Zaire. India-US Trade: US Ambassador Sergio Gor says an interim trade deal is at the “last 1%,” with final steps expected in weeks. India Navy & Pakistan: Admiral Dinesh K Tripathi says Operation Sindoor showed “unprecedented” tempo, keeping Pakistan Navy largely confined to ports and affecting its maritime economy. Regional Security Diplomacy: At Singapore’s Shangri-La Dialogue, China’s defence minister skipped the event again, while US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth urged “drama-free” ties and avoided direct mention of Taiwan. Business Watch: Inditex’s Zara JV in India posted its weakest performance since the pandemic as competition and digital-first rivals squeeze growth. Climate Risk for the Pacific: Samoa’s PM urges urgent global action ahead of the IPCC’s final synthesis warning, warning low-lying communities face relocation and sovereignty loss.

US-China Security Tone: U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Singapore’s Shangri-La Dialogue ties are steadier than in years, but warned China’s fast military buildup is driving “rightful alarm” in the Indo-Pacific. Myanmar-India Pivot: Myanmar’s president Min Aung Hlaing is set for a first overseas trip since taking the civilian role, with India talks seen as a way to reduce China’s sway and secure rare-earth access. Philippines-Japan Upgrade: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. says his Japan visit was “very constructive,” as Manila and Tokyo elevate cooperation to a comprehensive strategic partnership covering defense, energy, maritime and economic ties. EU-China Trade Clash: China says it will take “necessary” measures after the EU signals tougher action to shield industry from Chinese imports. India Health & Tech: India unveiled a domestically developed CRISPR gene therapy for sickle cell, while NFHS-6 reports big gains in maternal and child care and women’s internet use. Aviation Weather Leap: India launched its first SkyCast fog-monitoring system at Delhi’s IGI airport under Mission Mausam. Pacific Finance: A new EU-backed Sustainable Pacific Blue Circle Fund was launched in Suva to help SMEs access funding for blue/green growth. China Domestic Watch: A former Shaolin Temple abbot was sentenced to 24 years for embezzlement and bribery.

Japan-Philippines Ties: Japan and the Philippines moved to upgrade defense cooperation and begin talks on an intelligence-sharing pact, while China called the maritime delimitation effort “illegal and void.” Japan Demographics: Japan’s population fell to 123.05 million in 2025, down a record 3.1 million, underscoring pressure on an ageing society. India Heat & Monsoon: India’s National Green Tribunal launched suo motu action over extreme heatwave impacts, as Reuters flagged a likely El Nino-weakened monsoon with the lowest rainfall in 11 years—raising crop and inflation risks. China-Global Outreach: China’s diplomatic calendar is packed with high-level visits, and a CICC forum in London spotlighted China-Britain financial cooperation and wealth management opportunities. China Economy: Chinese SOEs reported 1.9% profit growth in the first four months of 2026. India-US Trade: US Ambassador Sergio Gor said a bilateral trade deal with India is about 1% from completion, with talks continuing soon. South Korea-Canada Security: South Korea deployed the ROKS Dosan Ahn Changho across the Pacific to support Canada’s submarine plans.

Philippines–Japan Security Boost: President Marcos met former PM Fumio Kishida on Japan’s $10B Powerr Asia plan, while Tokyo and Manila agreed to start talks on sharing classified military info, maritime border delimitation, and transferring Abukuma-class destroyers—plus a double-tax deal—under an upgraded “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.” Japan Demographics & Industry: Japan’s population fell to 123.05 million in 2025, a record drop, as aging accelerates; meanwhile April industrial output rose 0.8% on machinery and chip-related gains. Japan Rice Crisis Fallout: Japan’s government blamed overestimating supplies and slow emergency response for the rice shortage, with tourism and distribution misreads worsening price surges. China’s Marine Biopharma Push: China issued its first national policy for marine biopharmaceuticals, targeting $19B value added by 2030 and a stronger resource-to-drug pipeline. India–Iran Shipping & US Pressure: An India-bound oil tanker cleared the Strait of Hormuz as Iran’s IRGC allowed transits; US Treasury’s Bessent said “kinetic action” and economic pressure pushed Iran toward nuclear talks. India Money Modernization: RBI is reportedly preparing polymer rupee notes to cut maintenance costs and boost durability. Markets & Policy Mood: EU regulators opened a full probe into JD’s Ceconomy deal over possible foreign subsidies; China’s Shangri-La Dialogue spotlighted Indo-Pacific tensions and doubts about US priorities.